2009 Big Ten Football Preview

Ohio State, Penn State Will Battle for League Crown Once Again

Beanie Wells is gone. So is James Laurinaitis. And Malcolm Jenkins. And Brian Robiskie. Shall I continue? One might guess this would be a rebuilding year in Columbus. But Jim Tressel has proven himself capable of reloading quickly. His job will be made easier this season by quarterback Terrelle Pryor, the super-talented sophomore who spent the winter working on his passing skills. Pryor is a phenomenal athlete—one of the best in the country. If he can become even an above-average passer, he’ll keep defenses on their heels and help the Buckeye offense soar—even without Wells and gang. The big question marks for the Bucks are over on defense, where unproven youngsters will have to step up—especially on Sept. 12 against USC.

Prediction: 11-1

Yes, All-Big Ten quarterback Daryll Clark is back, as is sensational tailback Evan Royster. But gone are Clark’s three top targets from 2008 (Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood), along with three starters from the offensive line. On defense, Navarro Bowman and Sean Lee figure to comprise the best linebacking duo in the conference, and Jared Odrick will lead another talented defensive front. But the secondary is a major concern, returning only one starter from a 2008 unit that got torched by USC in the Rose Bowl. Working in the Nittany Lions’ favor is the schedule, which has them host both Ohio State and Iowa and includes four cupcakes out of conference. Temple, Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. Ugh.

Prediction: 10-2

Quarterback Ricky Stanzi is set for a breakout season. As a sophomore in 2008, Stanzi took some lumps, but he was nearly flawless down the stretch and engineered a classic last-minute drive to help his Hawkeyes upset then-undefeated Penn State in November. He threw for 1,956 yards and 14 touchdowns last season and figures to improve dramatically on those numbers in 2009; the kid is poised, smart and athletic. Which is a good thing, too, since Shonn Greene isn’t around anymore to carry the Hawkeyes offense. On defense, Iowa needs to replace superstar defensive tackles Mitch King and Matt Kroul. That’s a tall order, and so it will be interesting to see if the defense is ready for what Penn State throws at it on Sept. 26.

Prediction: 9-3

Spartan stalwarts Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer are gone, and so this year becomes the first real test of Mark Dantonio’s promising young tenure in East Lansing. Slowly but surely, the fiery Dantonio has built up a solid foundation at Michigan State, and his efforts—especially his work on the recruiting trail—will help his program survive the departure of their top two offensive leaders from 2008. There’s not a lot of talent at the skill positions here, but the Spartans are tough along the offensive line and also boast an underrated defensive front seven. You may not have heard of linebacker Greg Jones yet, but you will soon. After Penn State’s Bowman, Jones is the best ‘backer in the league.

Prediction: 8-4

Pat Fitzgerald is one of the most impressive coaches in the country. Year in and year out, the Wildcats rank near the bottom of the national “recruiting rankings.” Yet somehow, Fitzgerald finds a way to make his team competitive and, occasionally, very good. Last year, the ‘Cats finished 9-4 and nearly knocked off Missouri in the Alamo Bowl. This year, they will rely on quarterback Mike Kafka—an athletic kid who rushed for 217 yards in a win against Minnesota last year—to power an offensive attack that loses both longtime quarterback C.J. Bacher and superb tailback Tyrell Sutton. The ‘Cats aren’t as “talented” as the top half of the Big Ten. But they’re nearly as good.

Prediction: 8-4

It's Year Two of the Rich Rodriguez era, and though RichRod has been fun to pick on the past year or so, there’s no doubt that this guy can coach (just look at his resume, folks). Reasons for optimism? Here goes: He’s got his own handpicked quarterback (freshman Tate Forcier). Tailback Brandon Minor gives the Wolverines a dangerous weapon in the backfield. And defensive end Brandon Graham is a force along the front seven. This Michigan team isn’t ready to contend, not even in a down Big Ten, but they’re certainly ready to go bowling. Eight wins for Michigan this year.

Prediction: 8-4

Ron Zook, welcome to the hot seat. Zook caused a stir when he took his 2007 Illini squad to the Rose Bowl—he even got a reality show on the Big Ten Network out of it—but his team’s swift fall back to earth in 2008 (they missed out on bowl season) was a huge setback. Now he’s facing legitimate questions about the future of the program and the security of his job. Zook has three of the most talented players in all of the country—quarterback Juice Williams, wideout Arrelious Benn and linebacker Martez Wilson—and so one might think that he would be capable of keeping the Illini up among the Big Ten’s best. But Illinois is inconsistent on offense, prone to collapse on defense, and, at times, simply terrible on special teams.

Prediction: 7-5

Last year, the Badgers entered the season with a Top 10 reputation. Then they proved to be unworthy even of Top 25 consideration. A second-half collapse cost them against lowly Michigan. They were humiliated at home by Penn State. They choked against Michigan State. And to top it all off, they didn’t even bother to show up against Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl. There is talent on this team, certainly—tailback John Clay is a monster—but the fact is, Wisconsin has slipped each year since coach Bret Bielema took over in Madison. Talent-wise, the Badgers probably deserve to rank ahead of the Wolverines and Spartans. But the on-the-field results speak for themselves.

Prediction: 7-5

Here are the positives: Most everyone who mattered for the Gophers in 2008, including standout wideout Eric Decker, is back for 2009; Tim Brewster remains one of the most incredible motivators in all of college football; and, finally, the Gophers have left the terrible Metrodome behind for the greener (in every way) pastures of TCF Bank Stadium, the program’s new on-campus, outdoor stadium. Here’s the bad news: Minnesota hasn’t proven itself capable of putting a full season together in decades, and sorry to say, I don’t see them pulling it off this year, either. Time and time again, the Gophers choke when they have the chance to make a splash. I’ve given up on believing in these guys. But enjoy that stadium, Gophers fans.

Prediction: 6-6

Joe Tiller is fly-fishing somewhere out in Montana. And Purdue is sure to miss him. Tiller had his shortcomings, but the guy put Purdue on the map like no coach had in decades. Now, the program has been turned over to Danny Hope, and quite frankly, we have no idea what to expect. Hope has already signaled a willingness to turn up recruiting efforts—he’s pushing hard down in Florida—but even if he’s successful, we’re not likely to see any return on investment or another couple years. As for this year? Well, the Boilers have no quarterback, at least now that Justin Siller is gone. And for a program that has historically relied on its quarterbacks for success, that’s not a good sign.

Prediction: 4-8

Remember the optimism and joy of 2007? Remember Kellen Lewis showing flashes of becoming the next Antwan Randle-El? Remember James Hardy dominating cornerbacks? Remember Greg Middleton crushing quarterbacks? Remember Indiana earning a bowl bid? Yeah, I remember all of that, too—even though 2008 was an outright disaster. The once-promising Lewis ran out of chances with coach Bill Lunch and is off the team. He’s been replaced Ben Chappell, who is a better passer than Lewis, but isn’t in the same league athletically. Meanwhile, the same problem that has plagued the Hoosiers for years will once again hurt their chances in 2008: This program does not have the athletes up front to compete. Back to the basement for Indiana.

Prediction: 3-9