2009 Big 12 Preview

Most experts have Texas listed among the Top 5 teams in the country. Unfortunately, those same experts have the 'Horns a spot or two behind Big 12 South rival Oklahoma. But you know what? I actually give Texas the edge. Colt McCoy is every bit the quarterback that Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford is, and his longtime friend, wideout Jordan Shipley, will help McCoy keep the ‘Horns offense on track. It doesn't hurt to have almost the entire starting offensive line back, either. If Mack Brown can finally find an every-down tailback back—somebody that can give Texas the stabilizing force it has so long lacked in the backfield—then this offense may well become impossible to stop.

Prediction: 11-1

Heisman winner Sam Bradford returns to Norman with one thing on his mind: Redemption. After a spectacular regular season in 2008 that saw the Sooners make opposing defenses look silly, Bradford and his teammates were almost completely shut down by Florida in the BCS Championship Game—a game that seemed to reinforce what all of the critics had been saying about the Big 12 all season (great offenses; atrocious defenses). Bradford doesn’t figure to have any trouble moving the ball in 2009, not with the return of NFL-ready tight end Jermaine Gresham and super-talented tailback DeMarco Murray, so Oklahoma’s fortunes figure to rest on that defense—the unit most responsible for this team’s high-profile BCS failures of late.

Prediction: 11-1

Put Oklahoma State in the ACC or Big East and they’d be punching their ticket to a BCS bowl game. Yeah, these guys are that good. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they’ve got to contend with the Sooners and Longhorns every year. No small task. This year, though, they’ve at least got a puncher’s chance to make that great leap forward and finally steal the spotlight away from their South rivals. Leading the charge for the Cowboys will be the stellar offensive trio of quarterback Zac Robinson, tailback Kendall Hunter and wideout Dez Bryant. Hunter and Bryant have gamebreaking ability and Robinson is an underrated—and experienced—leader. There’s talent here. This team just needs to start believing it belongs with the big boys.

Prediction: 10-2

This is a true leap of faith: Somehow, someway, I expect Tech coach Mike Leach to win nine games. The guy is one of the great coaches in the country, and if you don’t believe that, just take a look at what he’s accomplished in Lubbock: He’s made this program a consistent winner and, last year, actually had his team—and this is Texas Tech, folks—right in the midst of the national championship hunt. Yes, quarterback Graham Harrell is gone. And yes, so is superstar wideout Michael Crabtree. But returning are such contributors as wideouts Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis, left tackle Brandon Carter and the entire linebacking corps. Of course, also returning is Leach’s system, which continues to drive defensive coordinators nuts.

Prediction: 9-3

A decade ago, Nebraska was among the elite in college football. Today? Well, today, Nebraska is (maybe) the best team in a bad division. Coach Bo Pelini has brought the energy back to Nebraska football, but in terms of talent, this squad is still light-years behind Texas and Oklahoma. Offensively, the inexperienced Zac Lee will most likely run the show, but he’ll have a solid line in front of him. Pelini made waves by giving his defensive unit their blackshirts back last season—even though they weren’t really that good. Things have to improve this year if Nebraska wants to secure the North title. The bad news? Only five starters are back from that average-at-best 2008 unit.

Prediction: 9-3

Quarterback Todd Reesing returns for the Jayhawks, as do his three top targets—wideouts Jonathan Wilson, Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe. So you have to figure this team is going to score points, even with a mostly rebuilt offensive line. But the defense? Well, that’s another story. It wasn’t any good in 2008 and, though a handful of starters return, it doesn’t figure to improve much in 2009. This team started strong last season before suffering through four losses in five games in late October and early November—and the culprit in those losses was the defense, which gave up 45 to Oklahoma, 63 to Texas Tech, 45 to Nebraska and 35 to Texas. Even in a weak Big 12 North, such a porous unit is cause for concern.

Prediction: 9-3

Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin are gone, and with them goes Mizzou’s identity. This program enjoyed two of its best years ever in 2007-2008, but the true test of coach Gary Pinkel arrives in 2009. Even with Daniel running the show, this is a team that had trouble winning the big ones, so with their quarterback gone, the question now becomes whether or not the Tigers can even manage to win the little ones. The much-hyped Blaine Gabbert figures to step in for Daniel, but he won’t have anyone of Maclin’s caliber to throw to. In fact, with the lack of talent on the flank, tailback Derrick Washington could take on a larger role that one might expect. The defense needs to be rebuilt, too, with only four starters returning.

Prediction: 8-4

Yes, believe it: Baylor is actually building something out there in Waco. Coach Art Briles has brought some long-needed excitement (not to mention talent) to Baylor—most prominently in the form of sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin, one of the most talented signalcallers in the country. This kid is legit, folks. He rushed for nearly 900 yards, passed for nearly 2,100 yards and generally confounded opposing defenses in his debut season, and he’ll do more of the same in 2009. With even a little bit of luck—and a win in one of their first two games, at Wake Forest and then at home against UConn—the Bears might actually flirt with bowl eligibility in 2009. Yeah, I said it: Baylor. Bowl eligible.

Prediction: 7-5

While the 2009 season doesn’t figure to be much better than the 4-8 snorefest of 2008, there is reason for hope is Aggieland: Against all odds, coach Mike Sherman is actually recruiting really well. At least, he’s recruiting well enough to have his 2010 class ranked among the best in all of college football (as of this writing)). In the meantime? Well, the Alamo Bowl is possible. Maybe not likely. But possible. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson has all the makings of a star quarterback—the kind of player who could change the very perception of the program. The defense, unfortunately, is a mess. Once the pride of the A&M program, this unit is among the worst in the conference. The days of the Wrecking Crew are long gone.

Prediction: 5-7

Coach Dan Hawkins arrived in Boulder amid great expectations, but so far, his tenure has achieved little more than mediocrity. I don’t see much changing in 2009. Cody Hawkins returns at quarterback, but after the offense averaged only 20 points per game in 2008, one has to wonder if that’s a good thing. The defense, which loses a ton of starters from last season, doesn’t figure to be any better than the offense. I mean, think about this for a second, folks: The most well-known player on this entire team is tailback Darrell Scott—and he’s only “famous” because of his high school exploits and much-followed recruitment. Never a good sign.

Prediction: 5-7

Bill Snyder saved K-State before. Now he has returned to save the program again. Can he do it? Of course he can. But not this year. The roster, outside of explosive wideout Brandon Banks, is bereft of talent—light years behind the best teams in the North, not to mention those elite squads over in the South—and any momentum that Snyder built during his first run in Manhattan (anyone remember the Michael Bishop era?) was lost during Ron Prince’s failed tenure. Snyder is certainly obsessive enough, and smart enough, to bring this program back to respectability. The only question is whether he’ll be able to hang in there long enough to make it happen.

Prediction: 4-8

Can anyone explain the Gene Chizik era? Because I can’t. The guy arrives with a big-time rep from Texas, then manages to drive the Cyclones program into the ground before landing the head coaching job at … Auburn! Yes, Auburn! Though Chizik insists he was making progress in Ames, let’s face the facts: His tenure there (5-19 in two years) was a disaster, and, sadly, he’s left Paul Rhoads to clean up the mess. So what of this mess? Well, here’s the gist: Quarterback Austen Arnaud is a great talent, and tailback Alexander Robinson isn’t bad either. But the defense is, in a word, atrocious. Rhoads has a lot of work to do.

Prediction: 4-8